The bvh (German E-Commerce and Distance Selling Trade Association) recently released their market estimates for 2009 along with their commentary.
The numbers stem from a representative questionnaire which the bvh organizes via TNS Infratest. Since 2006, they have proven themselves to be a source for reliable assessments on the market development for the electronic trade.
All in all the forecast is sunny:
- For 2009, the bvh calculates a market growth of 1.7%, to 29.1 billion euro.
- The distance selling or mail-order portion of the German retail market will rise from 7.2% to 7.4%.
- In particular, internet-based trade will boom and will grow 15%, to 15.4 billion euro.
Here the bvh numbers are reformatted to the Exciting Commerce representation (partitioned into future markets which includes a long term prognosis for 2017):
Legend:
Elektronisches Handel = E-commerce new markets and businesss models (online, mobile, tv)
Traditioneller Versandhandel (Online, Mobile, TV) = Traditional mail-order businesses (online, mobile, tv)
Traditioneller Versandhandel (Kataloggeschäft) = Traditional mail-order businesses (catalogue based sales)
Versandgeschäft der Hersteller und des stationären Handels = Mail-order sales channels of manufacturers and brick and morter retailers.
It will still take a couple of years before distance selling will play out its true market potential. Because although already greatly reduced, the traditional catalogue based companies have still held onto 57% of market share - thus making them the largest culprit in the growth statistics:
- According to the bvh figures, the catalogue business will drop another 8% in 2009.
- Altogether since 2006, catalogue revenues have shrunk 28%.
- Since 1997, revenues generated by the catalogue model itself has been halved to 10.5 billion euro and currently represents only 36% of the market.
After the bankruptcy of Quelle and the persistent difficulties at Neckermann and the mail-order businesses of the Otto Group, it seems like the market is dealing with the issue by itself.
So our expectations:
- The restructuring of the industry will have the essential components completed by latest 2012/13.
- Already in 2011 the pure electronic trade (online/TV/mobile) led by Amazon, Ebay, QVC und Vente-Privée will overtake the catalogue business as the largest distance selling market segment.
At latest by this point Germany can expect new and future oriented business models. Until then however, we will need to be content with adaptations of business models already proven out in other countries. Because the pure e-commerce industry has no lobby here. The bvh holds the catalogue to be further “meaningful” and “contemporary”.
Some basis remarks on the data and presentation:
- Electronic trade/commerce from the Exciting Commerce perspective are all trading volumes (= product revenues) which are generated over electronic sales means, that is, online, television, and mobile phone.
- The segment "Versandgeschäft der Hersteller und des stationären Handels" (mail-order businesses of manufacturers and brick and mortar merchants) also includes other miscellaneous bvh categories (pharmaceutical mail-order, etc.)
- The source data is to be found on the bvh pages, the revenues for teleshopping and other distance selling merchants (pharmacies, manufacturers, etc.) which are not found with bvh have been calculated according to Exciting Commerce estimates.
Originally posted in German by Jochen Krisch, adapted for excitingcommerce.com by Jason Soo.
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